30 August, 2011

New Fall TV Show Death Pool


It's almost that time of the year again, when the networks roll out their new stable of shows. Basically, it's like throwing shit at the wall to see what will stick. The truth is most are already dead shows walking.

I thought I'd make it interesting and pick which newbies are the top five candidates to meet the axe. You know, become this year's Lone Star, Undercovers, Shit My Dad Says, or The Event. It's not a science, I'm just going with my gut. Well, unless the show is on NBC, where chances are it will automatically fail (I keed, I keed, NOT). So here goes, let's play reaper!

1. THE PLAYBOY CLUB (Mondays 10/9c NBC)
NBC's attempt at MAD MEN style period drama will most definitely crash and burn. It's already surrounded by controversy, and it has a tough time slot. It may have The Sing-Off as a lead in, but it will finish a distant third in it's time slot against Castle (ABC) and Hawaii-0 (CBS).
Prediction: The controversy and viewers' curiosity will give it decent premiere numbers but it will plummet quickly and get pulled before it's inital 13 episodes have all aired.

2. GRIMM (Fridays 9/8c NBC):
Out of the gate, the chips are stacked against it. Sure the premise might be interesting, a Grimm's Fairy Tales inspired cop show. But it's target audience is pretty much spoken for. It's going up against two established genre shows Fringe and Supernatural. Did I mention it's on NBC.
Prediction: 13 and out.

3. CHARLIE'S ANGELS (Thursdays ABC)
Another remake could lead to viewer fatigue. The hotness that is Minka Kelly will not be enough to save the show. It is in a very tough time slot up against "The Big Bang Theory" and "The X Factor" results show.
Prediction: Will get a back 9, get a time slot change but will not be able to fend off it's cancellation in May.

4. WHITNEY (Thursdays 9:30/8:30c NBC)
This year's Outsourced. It's being protected by The Office but that is not a gimme anymore. It is yet to be determined how well a Carell free Office will perform. That will determine how long it will stave off the reaper. Regardless, it's premise seems boring: a young couple relationship comedy. Been there done that.
Prediction: Possibly a back 9, but then it's off to never never land next spring.

5. PAN AM (Sundays 10/9 c ABC)
ABC's attempt to cash in on the MAD MEN craze. A period night time soap that MIGHT play well. It's time slot against Sunday Night Football (NBC) in the fall and established veteran CSI: Miami (CBS) will likely hurt it's chances of survival. But then I may be wrong.
Prediction: A full 22 episode season and buh bye.

If you're interested in the entire crop of new shows check out TV Guide's list here. Come back and let me know which ones you think will meet their early demise.


15 comments:

  1. Pan Am's big problem is not the timeslot, it is the fact that they are trying to make the 60s more politically correct. What is the point of doing a period drama and stripping it of its natural drama?

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  2. Interesting... I haven't been keeping up on what they are doing with the show. In what way are they aiming for political correctness?

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  3. Whitney is a total "CBS comedy", but a bad one at that! I think Are You There Vodka, It's Me Chelsea is going to bomb, and I think the seemingly most critical praised series, Awake, will be too smart for NBC's viewers, and will ultimately be cancelled before getting through its midseason run. I think NBC's only two "successes" this year will be Smash and Up All Night, which I predict will get the 9:30 slot on Thursdays once their Wednesday comedy block crashes and burns.

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  4. Having seen the Pan Am pilot, I don't know what ThePit is referring to either. The casting of the main cast and the extras on the plane seemed accurate to me.

    Greek Geek's list is a good one, but the picking shows that won't make it is like picking which horses won't win the race. The odds are really in your favor since the majority don't make it.

    It's much harder to pick which shows will be successes and make it to a 2nd season. Who would have picked "Harry's Law"?

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  5. From the two minute promo for AWAKE that I saw, it looked too smart for even AMC.

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  6. I was shocked to see Whitney (who is so funny on the comedy central roasts) make such a blah cookie cutter sit com. I can tell from the commercials that I am not going to be watching this one.

    I saw that Hurly from Lost will be starring on a new show called Alcatraz. Is he playing the island?

    Work It... I liked it the first time when it was called Bosom Buddies.

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  7. Don't you motherfuckin' make fuckin' fat fuck jokes about my boy, Hurley!

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  8. I just looked this up. Of the 24 new series that were on the Fall 2010 schedule, 6 survived to get a 2nd season: Hawaii Five-O, Secret Millionaire, Blue Bloods, Mike & Molly, Nikita, and Raising Hope. Thus, 75% failed.

    Another five shows from mid-season survived, but I don't know what the total number of mid-season shows was to calculate the failure rate.

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  9. Thanks for the info MS. I guess it is like shooting fish in a barrel. But you did give me an idea. Which shows based on their premise do you think will get a second season? cough*AWAKE*cough :)

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  10. I really think I'll like Awake, but I fear for it.

    Here's my list of 5 Fall shows I think will get a 2nd season.

    X Factor: Even if it doesn't match American Idol's ratings, it will do well.

    2 Broke Girls: It's funny and it fits nicely into that CBS comedy mold.

    Unforgettable: Some critics have said they dislike it, but I thought it was better than I expected and it is a typical CBS procedural with a gimmick. The only question mark for me is that it has a female protagonist and few of the successful CBS procedurals have had one since Murder She Wrote. I'm not counting The Good Wife as a procedural.

    Secret Circle: It should be a good companion for Vampire Diaries.

    Last Man Standing: My riskiest prediction. Critics hated it. But, it might be one of those shows that middle america will love like According to Jim.

    Midseason is a different animal. I think "Smash" will be a hit. Alcatraz, with the awesome Jorge Garcia, may make it too.

    On my "crash and burn" list is the Sarah Michele Gellar show "Ringer". One iconic show does not a star make.

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  11. I have virtually no doubt that X-FACTOR will be a hit. 2 BROKE GIRLS has to succeed... if only because one of those girls is super hawt!!!

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  12. If I had to guess, the shows that will succeed will be New Girl, Smash, and 2 Broke Girls (maybe). If something is gonna survive at ABC, I guess it'll be *gulp* Last Man Standing. More than any new show though, it'll be interesting tracking 2.5 Men's ratings this year. I'm pulling for Kutcher. No, he's not a great actor, but he's not half as bad as critics make him out to be, and plus, he's very likeable, and will be That '70s Show viewers over. The question is whether that will be enough to compensate for the loss of Sheen fans...

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  13. A fun pool would be to guess the show that's canceled after the fewest episodes aired. I have this odd feeling about ABC's Revenge. Not because its bad. I really don't know. It just seems like a show no one is even noticing is coming on.

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  14. When I was compiling this list I had a nagging urge to throw Terra Nova on there. Not because of the quality of the show (which I really can't speak to yet). But rather the cost to the network and studio to put a show like this on tv. If the show doesn't get the ratings, well...

    Again, I can only go by MS' and HGF's previous posts on how they liked the show. I am sure I will sample it though.

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  15. I think if Terra Nova fails, it would be more like a "Event" failure or "V". They'll at least get a season or whatever their first episode order is.

    Terra Nova should have really good ratings initially. The Event started with a 3.6 A18-49 and was down to a 2.4 by the 3rd episode, but NBC still kept in on.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Terra Nova starts with a 4.0 or higher and will have further to drop.

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