The June 27th, 2011 issue of Advertising Age had a chart of predictions of Household ratings for next season on the major broadcast networks.
The predictions reflect C3 ratings and were averaged from submissions by media agencies—these are agencies that plan and buy media campaigns for advertisers. A “C3” rating is the rating that programs get during commercial minutes within three days of airing. C3 ratings are the currency on which advertising costs are based. They are most similar in size to Live + SD ratings, but rarely exactly the same.
You might be interested in how several geek shows fared in these predictions.
Person of Interest: 7.09
Glee: 4.39 (included because they are at SDCC next week)
Terra Nova: 4.11
A Gifted Man: 3.83
Family Guy: 3.73
The River (mid-season): 3.30
Awake (mid-season): 2.2
Vampire Diaries: 1.27
The Secret Circle: 1.05
Ringer 0.76 (included because its Sarah Michele Gellar and at SDCC)
It should be noted that because these are household ratings, shows that tend to have older audiences usually do very well.
Chuck fans may wonder how the predicted 1.97 for Friday at 8PM compares to Monday last season. It’s quite a drop. Chuck’s season 4 finale episode scored a 2.6 Live + SD household rating. Chuck’s replacement on Monday—The Sing-Off—is predicted to get a 3.4, which is higher than Chuck got last 4th quarter (3.2 average).
The “Person of Interest” prediction appears to be quite high to me. I’ve seen that pilot and wasn’t that enamored with it. I’m just not a Jim Caviezel fan. But, CBS claims it “tested well” and it gets CSI’s old timeslot. Everything else in the timeslot skews younger. So, maybe it will do well with the older folk.
If there are any other questions about what’s listed here, please comment below.